{"id":11047,"date":"2018-10-01T13:54:13","date_gmt":"2018-10-01T05:54:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/?p=11047"},"modified":"2026-04-20T15:51:28","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T07:51:28","slug":"slaying-the-black-swan-sg-style","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/2018\/10\/01\/slaying-the-black-swan-sg-style\/","title":{"rendered":"Slaying the Black Swan, SG Style"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Mr Raj Joshua Thomas (Arts & Social Sciences ’04, Law ’12) is President of the Security Association Singapore and CEO of full-service security firm TwinRock. He regularly advises clients on security risk mitigation measures, including counter-terror procedures and protocols.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Economist and statistician Nicholas Taleb, in his lauded\u00a0The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable\u00a0<\/em>defined a \u201cblack swan\u201d as a high-profile, hard-to-predict event that has an effect of large magnitude and consequence in history. While Taleb\u2019s black swan theory is concerned with events in the financial world, his discourse on the subject may also be applied to understand the effect of terrorist attacks on societies, and\u00a0how countries should craft their counter-terrorism strategies.\u00a0\u00a0

Taleb identifies three characteristics of a black swan:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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1.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The event is outside of the realm of regular expectations;<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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2.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The event carries an extreme impact;<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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3.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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In spite of its outlier status, speculation arises post the even, to try to explain it, and it is retrospectively\u00a0postulated to have been predictable.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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A black swan essentially changes the complexion of a society\u00a0in an unexpected manner, shaped by the emotions stirred up\u00a0by such a disruptive event.\u00a0

In the wake of an increase in the incidence of acts of terror, many countries have published national counter-terrorism strategies that seek to prevent and respond to terrorist attacks. A quick survey of the national strategies of other countries, including the United Kingdom, Australia and Denmark, shows an emphatic effort in preventing a terrorist attack, through identifying and dealing with potential terrorists, supporting operations against terror groups overseas and beefing up the emergency services.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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A 360 APPROACH<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>Singapore\u2019s counter-terrorism strategy includes the above, but has also incorporated a concerted effort to engage the public and enlist their participation in the effort. This is the SGSecure movement. The Singapore approach \u2014 unique among that undertaken in most countries \u2014 aims to negate the factors that would have made a terrorist attack a black swan, reducing its effect on the history of our nation and the way of life in Singapore.

First, the paradigm of how the Singapore government regards a terrorist attack is encapsulated in the SGSecure slogan: \u201cNot If, but When\u201d \u2014 that in spite of robust vigilance and prevention efforts, a terror attack in Singapore is inevitable. This seeks to remove the sting of shock should such an event occur in Singapore, allowing Singaporeans to fall back on the responses stipulated in the SGSecure schema. Indeed, a 2016 Sunday Times poll found that three out of four Singaporeans believed that a terror strike in Singapore was \u201conly a matter of time\u201d. Instead of relying on just trying to predict and prevent terror attacks, the acceptance that it is only a matter of time before it happens builds a sense of urgency to prepare against the inevitable, akin in tenor to London Mayor Sadiq Khan\u2019s comments that being prepared for terror attacks is \u201cpart and parcel of living in a big city\u201d.\u00a0

Second, SGSecure aims to reduce the impact that a terrorist attack has on Singaporeans\u2019 way of life. It holds: \u201cThe intent of terrorists is to inject fear and weaken the psychological resilience and social fabric of our society. This is why the cornerstone of our counter-terrorism strategy must be the strengthening of community vigilance, cohesion and resilience\u201d. In this regard, the SGSecure \u2018Stay Strong\u2019 pillar prescribes how one should react during a terror attack, specifically, the application of the Run, Hide, Tell sequence, and improvised first aid (Press, Tie, Tell). Further to the immediate physical reaction to an attack, SGSecure also advises on how to cope during a crisis. For example, it prescribes that persons could turn to family and friends for comfort, and should resume their daily routine and keep themselves occupied. It further cautions against avoiding people of other races, or religions. The objective of this portion of SGSecure is to blunt the impact of a terror attack and help Singaporeans revert to their usual way of life as soon as possible.

Third, SGSecure specifically provides for how Singaporeans should react in the aftermath of an attack, setting out, inter alia, steps to prevent speculation as to the details and motivations for the attack, that may fuel suspicion and discord. This is intended to ameliorate the possibility of finger-pointing at any particular group. SGSecure advises not to spread rumours, or to post or share videos that can cause worry and panic, and instead, to keep up with and rely on advisories and information from official sources. In this regard, SGSecure seeks to control the narrative after an attack.\u00a0

The 911 attacks is the most obvious black swan in recent times. Among other things, it has had significant impact on relations between communities within societies. A comprehensive 2017 Pew Research Centre Study on Muslims and Islam in the US and Europe underscores the growing distrust of minority communities. For example, the study showed that 41% of US adults felt that \u201cIslam encourages violence more than other faiths\u201d while 35% found that there was a \u201cgreat deal or fair amount of extremism among US Muslims\u201d. Half of the respondents felt that \u201cIslam is not part of mainstream society\u201d. In the UK, which has faced several attacks by Islamist extremists, over a quarter of respondents said they had an \u201cunfavourable view of Muslims\u201d. On their part, migrant communities say they face increasing discrimination. 50% of Muslims in the US felt that \u201cIn recent years, being Muslim in the US has gotten more difficult\u201d while a significant 75% said that there was \u201ca lot of discrimination against Muslims in the US\u201d.\u00a0
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A HOUSE UNITED<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>Such a situation where one community becomes targeted and distrusted after a black swan is simply untenable in Singapore. Our society is based on mutual respect for our constituent communities and this fine balance has brought us internal stability and is an integral aspect of our way of life. The safeguarding against a terror attack becoming a black swan must therefore begin even before a terror attack occurs. SGSecure provides for this, by encouraging Singaporeans to be part of a cohesive community by deepening mutual trust and respect through learning about different cultures, races and religious practices, and building links and friendships with neighbours regardless of creed.\u00a0

This approach is markedly different from that taken in, for example, Denmark, which in May this year passed a new law requiring children in ghettoes, who are mostly Muslim, to attend mandatory training in \u201cDanish values\u201d. This includes being taught about Danish culture and language, and the celebration of Christian holidays like Christmas and Easter. This new legislation has been criticised as targeting Muslims, and seeking to fight extremism by countering it with Danish values. Far from preparing Danish society from recovering from a terror attack, this type of policy drives wedges between communities and would invariably lead to more distrust and discrimination after an attack. Policies like these increase the likelihood that a terror attack would have a black swan effect.\u00a0

Nonetheless, while the SGSecure movement has been well-conceived, it is an ongoing effort. A 2017\u00a0Sunday Times<\/em>\u00a0poll found that with four in five Singaporeans were unprepared for a terrorist attack. Another survey by\u00a0The Straits Times<\/em> in 2016 found that social cohesion needed to be worked on, with half of the respondents stating that they were aware that there was a significant number of Singaporeans who were at least mildly racist. As such, there is yet work to be done to condition Singapore society to withstand against a terror attack changing our way of life. But, as succinctly put by Minister for Home Affairs Mr K Shanmugam (Law \u201984), \u201cyou can\u2019t just wave a magic wand and say it\u2019s done\u201d. While SGSecure may not be a magic wand, it is an integral tool that equips Singaporeans to slay the black swan, by preparing \u2014 socially, psychologically and skills-wise \u2014 for any act of terror on our soil.\u00a0<\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The SGSecure national movement is Singapore\u2019s community response to the threat of terror. It aims to sensitise, train, and mobilise our community to prevent and deal with a terror attack.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":11048,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-leadership","category-perspectives"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11047"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11047\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11066,"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11047\/revisions\/11066"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alumni.nus.edu.sg\/thealumnus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}